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Economic and Revenue Review for the Vermont State Legislature – January, 2025

In voting for change, the electorate in November excoriated the economicpolicies of the Biden Administration, but rarely has the economy entered a newpresidential term with such momentum. Despite two years of sustained highreal interest rates, the economy has not significantly slowed, and roaredthrough 2024 with recent unemployment at 4.1%, real GDP growth at 2.8%,inflation down to 2.4% (PCI basis), sturdy productivity gains, 48 consecutivemonths of job growth and the stock market posting multiple record highs. This stellar economic performance has… Read More »Economic and Revenue Review for the Vermont State Legislature – January, 2025

Economic and Revenue Review for the Vermont State Legislature – December 2024

Inflation is down sharply, to levels that have allowed the Fed to begin lowering interest rates, thereby supporting future investment and growth(with substantial lagsā€¦) Employment growth remains solid, despite a low October read due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike, at close to 200K new jobs per month. The unemployment rate has ticked up about a half a point from its 55 year lows in 2023,but has held steady at just over 4% Job openings still exceed the number of… Read More »Economic and Revenue Review for the Vermont State Legislature – December 2024

Official Vermont State Economic and Revenue Forecast July, 2024

A slower U.S economic recovery than forecast last July will temper revenue growth over the next two fiscal years. Multiple economic headwinds that developed in 2011 have yet to fully subside, as the European debt crisis continues to fester, oil prices again top $100 per barrel, and domestic political gridlock precludes federal fiscal and other policy measures that could accelerate the recovery. Although the Vermont economy continues to outperform the U.S. as a whole, minor revenue downgrades in all three major State funds are recommended relative to prior July 2011 projections.

FY12 revenues to date have performed very close to projections, with total revenues across all three funds closing the second quarter of the fiscal year within 0.5% of targets. Mounting Corporate refunds, higher gas prices, a tepid start to the winter tourism season and slower projected macroeconomic growth, however, will result in $1.8 million less in FY12 and $9.3 million less in FY13 General Fund revenues, and reductions of $0.3 million in FY12 and $0.8 million in FY13 in both the Transportation and Education Funds, relative to prior July 2011 forecasts.

Economic Impact Analysis and Review of the Proposed Northern Pass Transmission Project

The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate regional economic impacts associated withthe proposed Northern Pass Transmission Project (the ā€œProjectā€ or ā€œNPTā€), per SECDocket No. 2015-06. There are three primary areas of analysis within our purview: (i) ageneral economic impact analysis of the construction, development and operation of theProject, including integration of energy market price impacts, (ii) potential propertyvaluation effects and (iii) potential tourism industry impacts. This analysis is primarily focused on statewide New Hampshire impacts, however, thereare some aspects… Read More »Economic Impact Analysis and Review of the Proposed Northern Pass Transmission Project

Official Vermont State Economic and Revenue Forecast January 2012

A slower U.S economic recovery than forecast last July will temper revenue growth over the next two fiscal years. Multiple economic headwinds that developed in 2011 have yet to fully subside, as the European debt crisis continues to fester, oil prices again top $100 per barrel, and domestic political gridlock precludes federal fiscal and other policy measures that could accelerate the recovery. Although the Vermont economy continues to outperform the U.S. as a whole, minor revenue downgrades in all three major State funds are recommended relative to prior July 2011 projections.

FY12 revenues to date have performed very close to projections, with total revenues across all three funds closing the second quarter of the fiscal year within 0.5% of targets. Mounting Corporate refunds, higher gas prices, a tepid start to the winter tourism season and slower projected macroeconomic growth, however, will result in $1.8 million less in FY12 and $9.3 million less in FY13 General Fund revenues, and reductions of $0.3 million in FY12 and $0.8 million in FY13 in both the Transportation and Education Funds, relative to prior July 2011 forecasts.

Official Vermont State Economic and Revenue Forecast July 2011

Mounting headwinds from higher oil prices, receding federal fiscal stimulus, manufacturing losses associated with the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, festering European sovereign debt crises, and political gridlock in Washington that threatens the nationā€™s financial integrity, have all conspired to stall the emerging recovery, bringing job growth to a virtual standstill and lowering projections of economic activity in FY12. Despite all this, the Vermont economy has generally outperformed the U.S. as a whole, and closed FY11 with tax revenues slightly above (+2.5%) January projections.

Official Vermont State Economic and Revenue Forecast January 2011

A slower U.S economic recovery than forecast last July will temper revenue growth over the next two fiscal years. Multiple economic headwinds that developed in 2011 have yet to fully subside, as the European debt crisis continues to fester, oil prices again top $100 per barrel, and domestic political gridlock precludes federal fiscal and other policy measures that could accelerate the recovery. Although the Vermont economy continues to outperform the U.S. as a whole, minor revenue downgrades in all three… Read More »Official Vermont State Economic and Revenue Forecast January 2011